HIP-4 outcome markets

How HIP-4 outcome and prediction markets work on Hyperliquid

A HIP-4 outcome contract settles according to a defined event or measurement. Hyperliquid supports fully collateralized contracts with bounded payouts. Omni Outcomes provides a dedicated catalogue and review flow, with order submission limited by beta eligibility and network and territory rules.

At a glance

Why It Matters

What traders and researchers should take away

Similar headlines can refer to different market deadlines, thresholds or settlement sources.
A quoted price expresses the order book at a point in time. Spread, depth and fees affect the trade you can actually get.

How it works

What the product uses behind the scenes

Hyperliquid assigns each outcome an ID and each side its own token. Omni uses protocol metadata for market identity and uses confirmed account records for position and settlement views.

Notes

Things to know

A fully collateralized outcome can still lose its full purchase cost. Check fees and contract rules before interpreting the possible payout.
Catalogue browsing and real-money submission have separate availability. Trading eligibility also depends on account, approvals and legal consent.

Guide

Steps

Read the market rules
Check the exact question, outcome side, deadline and time zone, settlement source, fallback rules and quote asset. Read the protocol rules even when a market card provides a short summary.
Check the book and available balance
Inspect the selected side, available depth, executable price and total spend. Outcomes has its own funding step, separate from collateral in the Pro perpetuals terminal.
Review eligibility and reconcile
Eligible accounts review the network, market, side, size, spend and fees before signing. After an attempted order or resolution, use confirmed fills and credited balances to reconcile what happened.

Open the Omni Outcomes catalogue Browse the market catalogue when available. Order submission is gated separately.
Read the Hyperliquid HIP-4 specification Verify protocol mechanics for outcomes, sides and settlement.

Binary, scalar and grouped outcomes

The contract rules determine how the winning side or fraction is calculated.

For a binary contract, a resolved Yes pays one unit of the quote asset to the Yes side and zero to the No side, with the reverse for a resolved No.
Some contracts can settle to a fraction within a defined range. Read the specification before interpreting the payoff as all-or-nothing.
A grouped question can contain multiple related outcomes. Read the group membership and fallback rules before comparing prices across choices.

HIP-4 outcomes vs HIP-3 perpetuals

Choose the instrument based on what you want exposure to.

An outcome has a resolution rule and bounded payoff. A perpetual has price exposure, funding and margin while the position remains open.
For example, a BTC outcome can settle on whether a reference price is above a threshold at a specified time. A BTC perp changes value with price while held and can be liquidated.
Market news can help explain an event. Use the contract’s specified settlement source to verify the result.

References

Implementation references

Omni Outcomes workflow
omni-terminal/docs/OMNI_OUTCOMES.md
Describes catalogue, order review, eligibility and settlement reconciliation.